MADISON AUMENT:
For 91.9 KVCR News, I'm Madison Aument. Today on Economics IE, we are looking at the Inland Empire's job outlook for 2026 and why the region may be headed for a challenging year. I spoke with Kome Ajise, executive director of the Southern California Association of Governments, and Kevin Kane, who supervises demographics and growth forecasting there. I'm curious what factors are driving the prediction that the Inland Empire is going to face a challenging job market next year.
KOME AJISE:
The factors are universal. Across the board, we have weakening global trade and issues with the workforce, especially with the immigrant workforce population. Even in areas where we expect growth, like health care, local government and the logistics industry in the Inland Empire, those global factors temper that growth.
KEVIN KANE:
We are in a slightly unusual situation. Population growth has been especially low, and we are not gaining a lot of jobs in many industries. But we are also not seeing mass layoffs or major shocks that would cause big spikes in unemployment. Job growth is meager, unemployment is ticking up a little, and the job growth that does exist is concentrated in a few areas. It is overwhelmingly in health care and social assistance, followed by local government and public schools, and then warehousing and transportation.
The issue for 2026 is that there will not be sustained sources of growth. There is also risk from trade policy and tariffs, which affect logistics, and from federal immigration policy, which limits growth in many industries. Another wrinkle is the continued trend toward automation and, more recently, artificial intelligence.
AUMENT:
Why are health care and local government the areas where we are seeing job growth?
AJISE:
Health care is an absolute necessity, especially with an aging population. And when you look at government, that is where employment has remained stable. These sectors stand out because they are not directly affected by global trends and are positively affected by the need that exists.
AUMENT:
I wanted to ask about inflation-adjusted median household income. What did we learn in this analysis?
KANE:
Rent increases in the Inland Empire over the last five years have been tremendous. In Riverside County, median rent rose 13.2 percent from 2019 to 2024. In San Bernardino County, rent rose 20.3 percent. Nationwide, the increase was 11.9 percent.
As far as incomes, inflation-adjusted income gains in Southern California have actually been a little higher than in the United States overall. It is starting to equilibrate.
AUMENT:
Given all these trends, what should residents and businesses be thinking about going into the new year?
AJISE:
We are not looking like we are sliding into a recession. That is the positive to hold on to.
KANE:
You cannot look at the situation without bringing up artificial intelligence. One thing to be mindful of is the defensible skills or industries that cannot be replaced. Think about the more complex cognitive, ethical and engagement-oriented tasks that are going to be resilient.
AUMENT:
Thanks for listening to Economics IE. You can find this segment and a link to SCAG's report at kvcrnews.org/econie. Support for this segment comes from the Nowak Family.
For KVCR News, I'm Madison Aument..
