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Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.
President Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress.
At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.
The state of play: Democrats' hopes for taking over the House are more likely by the day, while the Senate remains a longer shot.
The House: All members of Congress face election every two years. Republicans currently have a 218-214 majority with three vacancies (one Democratic, two Republican). If the vacancies are filled by members of those same parties, which is likely, and you put redistricting battles to the side, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats to maintain their majority.
At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, there are 36 House seats that are either toss-ups or lean toward one party or the other. Of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 18 are Democratic seats. But zeroing in on the toss-ups alone, 14 are Republican, and only four are Democratic. And the political winds are blowing in Democrats' direction. Cook moved 18 seats in Democrats' direction a few weeks ago.
The Senate: Senators win six-year terms, and roughly one-third of the Senate is up every election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a three-seat net advantage, 53-47. (Two independents caucus with the Democrats.) But given Trump is president, and Vice President Vance would come in to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs (22 Republican-held and 13 by Democrats). But the universe of competitive seats is actually much smaller — 25 seats are considered to be safely in the hands of the incumbent party (16 Republican, nine Democratic), according to Cook. That means only 10 seats are truly in play. Of those, six are held by Republicans, including Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Four are Democratic: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
The fights for both chambers will be closely watched, but the House is still considered Democrats' best chance for control of one of the chambers of Congress.
The reasons for potential winds of change:
1. President Trump is unpopular.
Almost nothing is a better predictor of electoral success in midterms than who's in power and how popular they are.
Historically, midterms are not good for the president's party. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and four in the Senate.
"Even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms," Trump said in Iowa late last month. He added, "It's crazy. You know, you'd think it would be like a 50-50 deal or something. It's like, for some reason — and this is Democrat, too — Democrat wins the presidency, for some reason, they lose the midterms."
It's even worse when a president is below 50% job approval, as Trump has been for a while. When that's the case, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House (and the same number in the Senate).
Redistricting and the rise in safe House seats, though, has lessened the likelihood of wave elections that would bring huge swings toward one party or the other.
Still, the popularity of the president is an important sign, and midterms are often referenda on the president's policies. Right now, Trump is under water, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out last week.
It showed Trump with a 39% job approval rating. He's been under 40% in the poll since November. His policies on everything from immigration enforcement to tariffs and foreign policy are all unpopular.
His voting coalition is fraying, too. Independents, voters under 30 and Latinos were key to Trump winning reelection in 2024. But they have slid away from him heavily. In the NPR poll, just 30% of independents and voters 18-29 approved of the job he's doing, along with just 38% of Latinos.
For all of Trump's boasting, he is showing signs that he and the White House understand the vulnerable position he's in. He's changed his tone on immigration enforcement, for example, saying in an interview with NBC News that he's learned his administration can take a "softer touch" (though he blamed "bad publicity" rather than bad policy).
2. The economic outlook is bleak.
Americans continue to say the economy is their top concern.
In the NPR poll, 54% of respondents said Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. Immigration was a distant second at 22%, though it was No. 1 for Republicans.
Only 36% said they approved of Trump's handling of the economy, with a majority saying tariffs hurt the economy.
A Pew Research Center survey also out last week found 72% rated the economy as "fair" or "poor."
A plurality — 38% — said they expect the economy to get worse in the next year, while just 31% said it will be better, and 30% said it would be about the same. Majorities in both parties said they're very concerned about the cost of health care and the price of food and consumer goods.
And, by a 52%-28% margin, respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse rather than better.
3. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections.
With a win for a state Senate seat in Texas on Jan. 31, Democrats racked up yet another special election victory.
Ordinarily, there wouldn't be that much attention on a state Senate race, but the eye-popping margin and the pattern of other Democratic overperformances in the past year made this one national news. Special elections can be good predictors of success or failure in the following midterm elections.
In 2024, Trump won this Fort Worth, Texas-area seat by 17 points. But the Democratic candidate in this election won it by 14. That's a 31-point swing.
Trump would rather it was ignored.
"I'm not involved in that," he told reporters on Feb. 1. "That's a local Texas race."
But Trump had given his "Complete and Total Endorsement" to the Republican in the race and put out three social media posts promoting her and urged Texans to get out and vote.
It's just the latest example of elections over the past year, from special elections to November's off-year results, where Democrats have racked up wins and overperformed, often by double-digits.
In fact, between House seats, the fall's gubernatorial races and this one, Democrats have overperformed 2024 margins by an average of almost 16 points.
As they might say in Texas, Republicans' House majority is tighter than a wet boot.
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4. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats.
A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up for this 2026 election cycle.
It's a record pace, and, right now, it's more Republicans calling it quits — 30 to 21.
Lots of factors go into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington when little gets done and acrimony is as high as it is.
But which party has more lawmakers who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.
What's more, the rate of reelection is very high for incumbents. Part of that is high name identification. Part of that is built-in financial advantages. Part of that is just that people check the box more often for who they know.
When there are more open seats, especially in competitive places, parties and candidates have to spend more time recruiting candidates and more money trying to help them win — money that could be used to shore up already vulnerable officeholders.
5. Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test.
On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress.
That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.
But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years. And, a year ago, Republicans were the ones leading on the congressional ballot, showing just how much the landscape has shifted in Democrats' favor.
There are no guarantees, a lot can change, and the Democratic Party is less popular than the GOP in many polls — mostly because Democratic voters aren't thrilled with their own leaders. But, at this moment, Democrats have the advantage.
As Cook's Erin Covey writes: "With only a few exceptions, midterm elections have been driven by backlash to the party in power — and the Democratic Party's unpopularity hasn't kept their voters from turning out in off-year elections.
"If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House ... . Though that's not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
Copyright 2026 NPR
